Let’s see if I can come up with a post every day of the rest of the offseason. Today, there are 26 days left until Opening Day on April 6.
Only 5.4 WAR this year? Come on, guys.
26
is the approximate number of Wins Above Replacement the Royals offense was worth last season. For reference, the highest team WAR (for offense only) was Texas with 38.9, and the lowest was Seattle with a jaw-dropping 4.4. The Royals were 10th in the Majors.
This year’s lineup is pretty well set like so:
Gordon
Giavotella
Hosmer
Butler
Francoeur
Moustakas
Cain
Perez
Escobar
Yuni (ugh) and Getz (ugh) will sub in for Giavotella, Escobar, and Moustakas way more often than they should, and of course Pena will spell Perez behind the plate, but the top of the order is pretty well set.
Now, according to fans who submitted projections for each of these players at FanGraphs, this year’s Royals hitters will be worth 30.9 WAR (though no one has done projections for Jarrod Dyson or MITCH Maier yet). Most of these projections might be a hair optimistic, but they all seem mostly realistic.
The only ones that gave me pause were Gordon at only 5.4 (compared to 6.9 actual WAR last year), and Moustakas at 3.3. If Moose were to produce at about the same rates as he did in a partial season last year, his WAR after a full-ish season would only be 1.1. (I went with 144 games, to match what the fan projections say.) Am I the only one who thinks a 3.3 WAR season would be a pretty big jump? I mean, lots of 3B put up more than that last season – including Alberto Callaspo, for the record.
Obviously I hope he does produce at that level. Overall, I think the fan projections are on track. It’s not ridiculous to think this year’s crop of hitters can put up 30 or more WAR. Not at all.
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