A few days ago, I lamented the fact that Kansas City’s everyday lineup boasts two of the worst on-base guys in all of Major League Baseball. These two players, of course are Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. A third player in that Bottom 10 list, Jeff Francoeur, is someone for whom GM Dayton Moore has publicly declared a desire.
So it appears that Moore underappreciates the value of getting on base, which is worrisome for a fan base that already has a terrible number of worries.
I wish I could be more hopeful for 2009, but I’ll pout instead. Today’s negativity is brought to you by Guillen, because the recent signings of better outfielder/DHs for less money are making me resent him a bit more than I already did.
Guillen is in the MLB’s Bottom 10* in these categories:
BB: 23 (7th-worst)
OBP: .300 (10th)
BB%: 3.7% (8th)
BB/K: .22 (4th)
Value wins: .2 (10th)
Dollar value: $0.9 million (10th)
*among qualified hitters – no “cup of coffee” players. Source: FanGraphs
That last number also makes him the 2nd-biggest free agent bust of 2008, according to Tim Dierkes. (It would be mighty hard to top Andruw Jones in that category. I mean…yikes.)
In my dreams, we could get rid of Guillen and play someone else – anyone else – in his place. Better yet, we could rewind time and either make it a one-year contract instead of 3 years, make it for just a couple million dollars, or not make the signing at all.
But those things aren’t possible, not even the first option. The Royals, as Clark pointed out last week, are stuck with Guillen, and for two more seasons we can expect to see him flirt with the very bottom of the on-base barrel, and in fact the bottom of every category that has to do with getting on base and not being a hopeless hacker.
Also, this is my first post here on MVN, and I figure I should say hello to any new readers. A bit about myself:
I’m 20, which I only mention because that means I’ve never known a truly successful Royals team. I have blogged about the Royals for several years, and very much regret naming my old site “Baseball and Other Things.” I mean, what a dumb name. Accurate, but lame. I also write every Monday for Ladies…, and have a general sports blog called Getting to First Base.
I was born and raised a Royals fan in western Nebraska, and am a student in Lincoln right now. I spend my summers in Omaha working for the Omaha Royals’ on-field promotions staff (a.k.a. the Powerade Girls), so this site should have some information/insight into some prospects as well as the big club.
Favorite sports writer: Joe Posnanski
Favorite Royal: probably Brian Bannister or Mike Aviles. That’s actually a really hard question.
Favorite baseball movie: Bull Durham
Favorite Minor League team name: Manatees (rawr!), Biscuits, Nuts, or IronPigs. Very hard question.
I really think that’s all you need to know. I’m very excited to be here alongside the excellence that is Royals Authority. Today’s post was really negative but in general I do try to stay more positive. Go Royals!
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5 comments
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grudz96
January 8, 2009 at 1:09 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
On minor league team names… I like the Lansing Lugnuts. Good stuff…
Jeff P.
January 8, 2009 at 7:22 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
“and for two more seasons we can expect to see him flirt with the very bottom of the on-base barrel,”
Just curious why you believe this, he OBP’d .350+ 3 of the 5 years before he joined the Royals. I do believe that being banged up and coming to ST out of shape affected his production. I won’t argue that he’s not overpaid (because he is) but I’m willing to bet that he puts up a line closer to .285/.345/.450 next season.
Minda Haas
January 8, 2009 at 9:19 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
Jeff, I hope you’re right. I’d love to see such a relatively high OBP from Guillen this season.
Here are some 2009 projections for him, via FanGraphs:
Bill James: .271/.322/.445
Marcel: .262/.314/.428
Some people have criticized the James projections for being too optimistic – he has pretty much all of the Royals improving next year, but even he has Guillen putting up another pretty uninspiring season. (By the way, the .322 OBP that James projects for next year would have been in the bottom 30 in the MLB this year. Still terrible, especially for a corner OF and for a guy making big money.)
I do hope you’re right, like I said. But guys Guillen’s age tend to get worse each season, not better – especially hitters with bad plate discipline. Guillen’s skillset is NOT one that ages gracefully.
Jeff P.
January 9, 2009 at 8:45 pm (UTC 0) Link to this comment
“But guys Guillen’s age tend to get worse each season, not better – especially hitters with bad plate discipline. Guillen’s skillset is NOT one that ages gracefully.”
Fair enough but there are exceptions (most notably Andre Dawson) so it is possible. I guess just color me overly optimistic.
Minda Haas
January 10, 2009 at 1:49 am (UTC 0) Link to this comment
I do hope you are right. If Guillen is an exception to the rule, Moore (and you!) will look like a genius, and I will happily eat my words. Bookmark this comment if you want, so if you’re right you can rub it in better…. :)